In August, the New York Independent System Operator (“NYISO”) will open the upcoming Public Policy Transmission Planning cycle. We have a good sense of the direction that NYISO will take based on the just-released 2025-2044 System & Resource Outlook (the “Outlook”). The Outlook revisits some old themes: the Tale of Two Grids remains with us, the congestion represented by the Central East Interface must be addressed (probably through dynamic voltage support), and the demands made on the grid by data centers are problematic.
But the Outlook also reveals a new focus on the prospects of new power supply resources and the interplay of various scenarios with the implementation of the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (“CLCPA”). The Outlook uses the term “unattainable” when referring to the CLCPA’s requirement that 70% of the State’s energy demand be met with renewable resources by 2030. It suggests that 2033 is “potentially attainable.” Having assumed a potentially achievable date of 2033, the Outlook correspondingly pushes the zero-emission deadline (“ZED”) of 2040 to 2044, and proceeds to develop a number of different scenarios based on a 2044 goal rather than the law’s 2040 date.
The Outlook then details two scenarios: one that achieves the ZED in 2044 and another that achieves 95% zero-emissions in 2044. It seems like a small difference, but the Outlook predicts enormous consequences stemming from that 5%. In the former scenario, an eye-watering 105 gigawatts (“GWs”) of new supply will be needed, which would likely necessitate the deployment of significant nuclear, renewable, and hydrogen power systems. In the latter scenario, only 40 GWs will be needed, and a new hydrogen system would likely not be required.
The Outlook does not pick a winner. Instead, it offers a number of policy recommendations to help stave off a crisis. Primarily, the NYISO recommends that state policy prioritize and accelerate the development of new firm dispatchable generation and transmission upgrades. On its penultimate page, the Outlook notes that a mix of new resources, including more efficient new and repowered fossil generation, is needed to supplement the system.
There are also some interesting passages that will be of particular interest to residents of the greater Capital Region. Renewable generation in this regional “pocket,” as the Outlook refers to it, is vulnerable to “curtailment” due to transmission congestion. Also, the Outlook opines that NYISO’s “Zone F” (more or less the Capital Region) would be a well-suited location for new nuclear generation (on the right side of the Central East Interface).
We can expect a vigorous discussion of the analysis presented in the Outlook during the Public Policy Transmission Planning cycle. The process is set forth in the Public Policy Transmission Process Manual, available on the NYISO website.
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